|Stocks & Mutual Fund Information|
Every day I hear someone on CNBC proclaim that "this is the bottom" and you should get in there and buy all those "bargains". "The valuations of the DOW stocks are a steal."
The low of DOW 8,000 immediately after September 11 was "the low" and the market did rally to about 10,700. That's 2,700 points. A smart trader could have made a fortune in six months. Oops! Then there was a Brody to DOW 7500. That's more than 3,000 points. That, for sure, is "the bottom". I heard them say so on TV and radio. It can't go any lower. Can it?
There has been a 1,500 point rally, but there now seems to be another one of those 'Oops' taking place. What is going on anyway?
The great majority of the media are too young to remember the last bear market of 1973-74 when the S&P lost 43% and the Value Line index was down 75%. In the last 2 years this bear has seen the S&P500 index lose 50% and there does not seem to be any so-called bottom in sight. Yet investors are encouraged to buy "for the long haul". Even the staunchest Buy and Holders are finding out that they need to have loss limit orders in - a long time ago. There is such a thing as market timing.
What has been happening is the market is making a correction of the excesses of the 18-year bull market from 1982 to 2000. If it took 18 years to reach the top then how long will it take to get to the bottom? I wish I knew. The predictions run from today to 15 years hence. Japan's bear just celebrated (?) it's 19-year low. From 1920 to 1980 there were 3 bull markets that lasted about 16 years and each was followed by bear markets that hung on for about an equal length of time.
As a technical analyst I have not seen anything that makes me believe we are near "the bottom".
And when that happens will the market take off on another bull run? Not very likely as the little guy will be broke and so shook up from his losses he will vow to "never play the market again". That very thing has taken place at the bottom of every major bear market. In 1932 it was more than a generation before investor confidence returned. Am I implying this could be another 1929-32? Anything is possible with the stock market. No broker will ever tell you that cash is a position. Cash at zero percent interest is better than losing 20% each year.
They might be having a big garage sale on Wall Street today, but I prefer to keep my money in my pocket - or maybe under the mattress.
Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.
How to Pick Winning Stocks
There is nothing more exciting than finding an undervalued stock and seeing it explode out of nowhere rising in value 100% or more in a few weeks. Some stocks can move as much as 1000% in a year and?. Even after the stock market crashed in 2000, some stocks still have gone up 500% or more in a year.
I receive emails from Morningstar. This company provides statistics and analysis of just about every publicly traded stock company you can think of as well as voluminous information on mutual funds around the world.
Lemmings Are Gathering
Before they go over the cliff to their destruction these little furry ones get together for a party and celebration. Each tells the other how smart he has been with his investments and buying and selling of stocks and real estate.
Four blind men were asked to give a description of an elephant. They had not seen one or ever encountered such a beast.
Paddle Your Canoe
At some time in your life you have been on a river in a canoe and hopefully you had a paddle. You know about being up the creek without one.
Stock Market Investments
If there is one term over-used when talking about making investments in the stock market I would think that term would be: buy low, sell high.
The Secret Art of Backtesting
If you have not back tested your trading system, you might as well trade with your eyes close.
The Law of Chaos is the theory of random unpredictable action applied to the cosmos, mathematics, mechanics, almost everything. Those who believe it will definitely think the stock market is in chaotic state at this time. Don't you believe it.
I'll bet with almost anyone that has stocks or mutual funds in his portfolio that he has losers, but he won't sell them because he "likes them" or some similar excuse. This is the philosophy of a loser.
Trading Stocks ?Never Forget About A Past Trade
We all know that emotions control every decision that an investor makes in any type of money related vehicle. Whether is be the stock market, real estate, art work or antiques, emotions ultimately set the final price on both sides of the transaction. Some investors have greater control over their emotions while other investors are destroyed by their emotional reactions to certain events.
My Stock - Right or Wrong
We all know the expression, "My country, right or wrong", but have you ever thought about the stocks or mutual fund you own and said to yourself, "My stock - right or wrong" and held on to your position even as you saw your hard-earned money disappearing?
Stocks & Oil, Sat Jun 18th, 2005
Both the stock market and oil prices rallied recently, which seems to be a paradox, because high oil prices are negative for earnings (i.e. a higher production cost and a higher consumer tax). However, the stock market was worried about another "soft patch," of slower economic growth, and the sharp rise in oil prices suggest the U.S. economy is still expanding at above trend growth.
A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Stock Market
On the 40 year journey through the turmoil of a volatile stock market I've noticed "P/E Ratios," "Consensus Estimates," " Bull and Bear Markets," stock ratings of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, star ratings of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Also, stock ratings of "buy," "strong buy," "sell," "hold;" stock rankings of "market perform," "market outperform," "market underperform," "market underweight," "market overweight," "market equalweight," and "market neutral."
Yesterday I received my monthly issue of MONEY magazine. This issue has the special feature called "The Ultimate Investment Club" that highlights their picks for the top mutual fund managers. Let's see how their members made money for their shareholders.
Analysts - Do They Really Know The Stock Market?
When you become interested in a stock or mutual fund you can call your broker and he will send you reports on how the company is doing, what their management is like and what might be the projected earnings for the company and how the industry is doing. Great information.
As the man said, "I've got some good news and I've got some bad news. What do you want to hear first?" It was replied, "Tell me the good news first". The good news is that they are going to make some changes in the mutual fund industry reporting to help the investor and the bad news is it isn't going to make any difference in your bottom line.
The stock market has been in an up trend for more than a year. Almost everyone is feeling good and many believe we are back in the old bull market with the previous high of the Dow Jones Industrial Average just about to be broken.
Choosing a Stock Broker
If you were to find that you had some severe illness that required surgery, would you attempt to perform that surgery upon yourself? What if your car broke down and needed a valve job? Would you get out the Craftsman tool set you got for Christmas three years ago and start tinkering under the hood even though you know absolutely nothing about engines? Of course you wouldn't do either of these things because there are times in life when we know we must seek the assistance of a professional. So why is it that so many people try to make their own investment decisions without consulting a professional stock broker?
Planning Your Dive and Diving Your Plan ? Trading!
A colleague of mine just returned from a scuba diving trip in Cozumel, which just happens to be one of my favorite places to dive. Anyway, she was telling me about an unexpected difficulty she encountered while swimming around the corral reef down about 85 feet. It wasn't anything serious but her story reminded me of something my scuba instructor used to say over and over again. "Plan your dive, and dive your plan".
Question: How does it get better when it gets worse?
|home | site map|