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The Concept of Value in Sports Betting!Daniel B. King In sports betting you need to make sure that your bets and trades are good value in order to make a profit. If you do not do this you will still win bets but profits may be harder to achieve. Let me explain this last statement. I actually lose more bets than I win - but the prices or odds at which I bet compensate for the losing plays. If you bet all season long on the NY Yankees US Baseball or Arsenal FC English Premiership - to win each game - you will probably end up with a fairly good winning strike rate - but it is unlikely that you will make any money. The odds will be short and you may do better to try and predict when these teams might falter - and bet against them at the over inflated prices being offered on the opposing teams. These opposing teams will most likely offer the value - as they are not the popular betting choice. When we flip a coin, we know that the true chance of it turning up heads or tails is 50% or evens 1/1. As an example we set up a coin flipping betting event. A neutral party begins to flip the coin. With each subsequent flip there is a definite preference for heads in the betting. The bookmaker or sportsbook takes this in his stride, he has already set the odds at 10/11 -110 US for either outcome which takes into account his commission. He knows that this trend is fairly usual as heads is often favored in this type of event. He decides, however, to balance his books a little by reducing his odds on heads to 5/6 and increasing tails to 1/1. Heads is now an even shorter price and represents no value. Tails now stands at a slightly better price but still only represents the true odds or likelihood of winning at 1/1 or 50% and so is not value. The event continues and still the betting favors heads. Why Well the average bettor does not really understand value, he does not understand that heads might well be a bad bet or hold no value. He just enjoys betting and since heads is winning - he wants to bet on heads. The bookmaker balances his books again with a dramatic shortening of the odds for heads to 4/9 and a lengthening to 6/4 +150 US, on tails. At this point the professional bettor would step in and begin to place bets on tails. He knows that he has got value at 6/4 for an event where the true odds’ of success are 1/1.
| | | | RELATED ARTICLES Wooden Kayaks Save money and look into building your own wooden kayaks. Kiteboating Just when you think that kiting can be for only a board, think again. With the inception of bigger and more powerful kites, the ability to speed up or move larger objects became a reality. Enter a new extreme sport Kiteboating. Imagine paddling along in a one – three man craft with kite harnessing the wind and speeding you along and over huge waves. It can happen with kiteboating. Have You Read Your Digital Camera Manual Have you read the manual that came with your digital camera If not you are in good company, the majority of digital camera owners never get past the *Basic Operations* section. The Benefits of Sports Psychology for Athletes Mental Game Coaching is that the segment of sports psychology that concentrates specifically on helping athletes break through the mental barriers that are keeping them from performing up to their peak potential. By focusing on the mental skills needed to be successful in any sporting competition, mental game coaching seeks to achieve the overall goal of performance improvement. Sailing Itineraries SAILING ITINERARIES IN GREECE - A PROPOSAL Mounting and Framing Your Needlework To start with, I want to state that I am not a professional framer, and many of the tips I am about to give are things I have learned from other people, and I have not necessarily had a chance to try them all myself. Over-Training HIT Progress Reports The Need For Speed In Soccer You only have to watch a senior professional game of football to recognise the importance that speed has in the game. But there is more to speed than meets the eye. Which Ring Tones Can I Get For My Phone Ring tones are simply a computer program stored in your cell phones memory and with most phones, you can change it. You can have a unique sound that only you want. Here’s the deal on ring tones - you get the cooler sounding rings on the newer, more expensive phones. For example, if you have an old Nokia phone, it can play a monophonic ring tone, which means simple tunes with one sound. But the newer phones can handle polyphonic ring tones. They can play several sounds at the same time, giving the ringing quality a more pleasing sound. TOP TEN Pound 4 Pound Best Boxer Ever Before we start our list, I wanted to take some time to comment on 2 fighters that may have strong support in certain communities for being among the best ever, but truly do not have a place on the list. The Dangers of Bingo Let’s face it; bingo is hardly going to arouse a thrill-seeker into taking it up in attraction to its high risk stakes. Over sixties, playing bingo in a community hall does not seem to register with the seedy possibilities of a stake-out associated with poker for example. But do not be fooled. There are hazards to the game of bingo and whilst they may be small and hardly worth deterring a player who enjoys the game socially and for fun, it may be interesting to know that there have been concerns over the game. Do Superstitions In Sports Actually Work What does it take to be successful in sports I have talked a lot about motivation, confidence, and focus and desire. All of these are important, but what about luck Do you ever wonder why athletes wear the same “lucky shirt” in competition such as Tiger Woods wearing his traditional red shirt on Sunday or athletes who eat the exact same meal for good luck prior to competition Some teams even go as far as not washing their jerseys until they lose a game. Satellite Radio Showdown: Sirius vs XM Radio The advancement of technology has seen the introduction of many new and exciting gadgets and services over the years: video recorders have been replaced by DVDs; record players with CD players and MP3s; and terrestrial television channels have been expanded to include hundreds of satellite channels to suit all tastes and ages. And now consumers can enjoy the benefits of satellite radio as well. No longer do we have to put up with a limited choice of channels, distorted sound quality, and continual interruptions in service and quality. Satellite radio offers incredible choice, excellent quality, and an uninterrupted service that you can enjoy in your home or in your car. 2005 - The Year of Patience 2005 has me going into my 15th year teaching golf.From day one, I thought that if I could come up with a technique that was fast and easy to learn I would be a pretty popular guy.Well, I did ... and I am.So what is fast and easyDoes it mean that if you take one lesson with me I can get you to shoot 72Well ... if I could get you to shoot 72 in 1 lesson I would charge $10,000 per lesson and the line up to see me would be down the street.I do get lucky sometimes but for the most part it usually takes me a little longer. Is First Aid Different in the BackCountry First aid is first aid is first aid – rightAt first glance, providing first aid in the backcountry appears to be much like it is anywhere else.But if you look a little closer and you’ll find it is quite different.When you have finished this article, you will understand how it differs and how you, as an outdoor enthusiast, must think about it differently. The Care and Feeding of Your Clear Vinyl Boat Windows Strataglass®, Lexan®, Plexiglass®, Isenglass, Crystal Clear, Eisenglass, etc. Whatever you call it, it all comes from polyvinyl chloride PVC which has certain definite characteristics. Trout Species – Cutthroat Trout and Golden Trout Cutthroat Trout: Cutthroat Trout are generally found only in high alpine lakes or in some selected areas of the Pacific Northwest. Things You Should Know About Tents Choosing Your Tent A Guitar Lesson To Help You Test Your Note Knowledge In this guitar lesson we look at a great way to test your note knowledge of the guitar fretboard. But before we look at that, why even bother learning the notes Why Difficulties In Horse Training A Good Thing Ill never forget one of the first horses I trained by myself.I could not have picked a better horse to give me problems. |
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